correlation and causation

It’s human nature to look for a cause and effect relationships. The problem is that correlation does not necessarily equal causation, meaning we may assume one thing has to do with another, when in reality there may be no connection at all.

Such is the case particularly when something new and different is in our environment. hCG for weight release is not ‘new,’ but it has gained wide-spread popularity and with the information ‘super highway’ of the internet, it is essentially ‘new’ to a whole population.

The problem with this is that there is a lot of speculation and assumption when people do not do their research, instead assuming that if there is something different in their lives, it must be due to the fact that they’ve started an hCG protocol. Of course, this is true if it means they are shrinking out of their clothes at an astounding pace, but here I speak of a multitude of other things.

For instance, because pregnant women produce hCG, and many pregnant women experience headaches, if a person has a headache after introducing hCG, they assume it is because of the hCG. This is an erroneous assumption, because known causes of headaches in pregnancy are: fluctuating estrogen levels, low blood sugar, poor posture, stress, dehydration, (and conversely a rapidly expanding blood volume), sometimes sinus issues or allergies, fatigue, and caffeine withdrawal.
[http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/headaches-during-pregnancy/AN01870 and http://www.americanpregnancy.org/pregnancyhealth/headaches.html]

Now, allergies and caffeine withdrawal may also be something experienced during the hCG protocol, but it is not because of the hCG protocol…see the difference between correlation and causation? Another cause of headache in the first few days of protocol can be a detoxification response related to sugar and/or artificial sweeteners, which is essentially due to the protocol, but not due to the hCG.

Nausea is another topic that comes up, again because nausea is associated with pregnancy and hCG is present in pregnancy. hCG is implicated in pregnancy nausea because:

“This hormone rises rapidly during early pregnancy. No one knows how hCG contributes to nausea, but it's a prime suspect because the timing is right: Nausea tends to peak around the same time as levels of hCG. What's more, conditions in which women have higher levels of hCG, such as carrying multiples, are associated with higher rates of nausea and vomiting.” [http://www.babycenter.com/0_morning-sickness-causes-concerns-treatments_254.bc]

Please note that it is the amount of hCG that is associated with nausea. In pregnancy, hCG levels in women will peak at anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 IU per day. Some sources say up to 1,000,000 IU! During protocol, the amount of hCG is usually around 125 IU per day for a limited time. That means about 4000 times more hCG is circulating in a pregnant woman, every time she’s pregnant! Since some women will be sick for one pregnancy, but not others, and approximately the same amount of hCG is being produced, thus it’s very likely that other factors are contributing. If nausea is experienced during Simeons protocol, it is much more probable that it’s due to the flu!

As people research hCG they will come across possible side effects listed for hCG, such as ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Keep in mind that these are, once again, for much the higher doses used in fertility treatments. Also, some may be tempted to make the leap that if those much higher doses could be implicated in OHSS, it might be possible that other reproductive issues could arise.

Again, if hCG were dangerous, every pregnancy would be high risk, which is simply not the case. The vast majority of pregnancies are uneventful…besides the blessed event of a new human being!

However, estrogen is stored in fat, and as women release fat, they are releasing estrogen. With hCG the fat is released, thus the increase in circulating estrogen is the probable culprit in things like changing cycles. Dr. Simeons observed that even estrogen dependent conditions, like fibroids…”seem to be in no way affected by HCG in the doses we use…” [Pounds and Inches: A New Approach to Obesity, Dr. Simeons]

There is a saying, “When you hear hooves behinds you, expect horses, not zebras.” The hCG protocol takes place over a 12 week period, although hCG is involved in only 6 weeks of that. In any event, in 3 months, a lot can happen. As weight is released, a lot can change, not just in our bodies, but in our self-perception. A pre-existing condition may even make itself known as we become smaller and more aware of our bodies. And isn’t that the best ‘side-effect’ of all if it allows us to address a problem we didn’t know we had?